Measuring substitution in China's monetary-assets demand system

摘要

This paper examines China's money demand using a Normalized Quadratic function in the search for global flexibility and easing of the degree of freedom. I impose the theoretical regularity conditions in the model that much of the previous literature ignores. I provide the robust estimates of the Morishima elasticities of substitution among currency, demand deposits and time deposits. I find that currency and demand deposits are elastic substitutes in use, while time deposits are inelastic substitutes with the former two. Time deposits are distant from a medium of exchange, and agents treat them as a saving asset, separable from the composite of currency and demand deposits. The results imply that the narrow money Ml is well-defined, while the broad money M2, which assumes perfect substitution of the component assets, is problematic. A monetary aggregate that internalizes the substitution effects should be adopted in China.