EXTREME HAIL STORMS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: FORETELLING THE FUTURE IN TINY, TURBULENT CRYSTAL BALLS?

摘要

In 2018, hailstorms accounted for three of the fourteen 2018 U.S. billion dollar disasters: a 6 June 2018 storm in Texas, and two Colorado hailstorms (18-19 June and 6-7 August). What is the role of climate change in changing hail risk? Can current research methods address the space and time scales required to adequately assess hail risk? Can the available data distinguish between changes in storm frequency, changes in storm reporting practices, and changes in economic risk and our built environment? The billion dollar hailstorms of 2018 have highlighted the limited capabilities of the scientific community to predict how climate change will impact hail storm risks, while raising concern about the vulnerability of society to these storms. Like any weather disaster, 2018's hailstorms provide an opportunity to re-evaluate methods for anticipating similar future weather extremes.