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Large increase in global storm runoff extremes driven by climate and anthropogenic changes

机译:由气候和人为变化驱动的全球风暴径流极端值大幅增加

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摘要

Weather extremes have widespread harmful impacts on ecosystems and human communities with more deaths and economic losses from flash floods than any other severe weather-related hazards. Flash floods attributed to storm runoff extremes are projected to become more frequent and damaging globally due to a warming climate and anthropogenic changes, but previous studies have not examined the response of these storm runoff extremes to naturally and anthropogenically driven changes in surface temperature and atmospheric moisture content. Here we show that storm runoff extremes increase in most regions at rates higher than suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, which are systematically close to or exceed those of precipitation extremes over most regions of the globe, accompanied by large spatial and decadal variability. These results suggest that current projected response of storm runoff extremes to climate and anthropogenic changes may be underestimated, posing large threats for ecosystem and community resilience under future warming conditions.
机译:极端天气对生态系统和人类社区造成了广泛的有害影响,山洪暴发造成的死亡和经济损失比其他任何严重的与天气有关的危害都要多。由于气候变暖和人为变化,预计由风暴径流极端引起的山洪泛滥将在全球范围内变得更加频繁和破坏,但是先前的研究并未研究这些风暴径流极端对自然和人为驱动的地表温度和大气湿度变化的响应内容。在这里,我们表明,大多数地区的暴雨径流极端增加的速率高于克劳修斯-克拉珀龙定标所建议的速率,后者在系统上接近或超过了全球大多数地区的极端降水,并伴有较大的空间和年代际变化。这些结果表明,目前预计的极端风暴径流对气候和人为变化的预期响应可能会被低估,在未来的变暖条件下,对生态系统和社区的复原力构成巨大威胁。

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