EXTREME RAINFALL (R20MM, RX5DAY) IN YANGTZE-HUAI, CHINA, IN JUNE-JULY 2016: THE ROLE OF ENSO AND ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE

摘要

In June-July 2016, the Yangtze-Huai region (27.5°-35°N, 107.5°-123°E) in China experienced a deluge of extreme rainfall, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (Fig. ES20.1a). The extreme rainfall caused widespread severe flooding, waterlogging, and landslides in the Yangtze-Huai region.We examined changes in the characteristics of rainfall for the June-July period, including the number of days with very heavy precipitation (daily precipitation > 20 mm; R20mm) and the maximum 5-day precipitation amount (RX5day). In this study, we estimated the probability that the changes in extreme rainfall were due to El Nino or to anthropogenic climate change.