Sector- and economy-wide effects of terminating the use of anti-microbial growth promoters in Denmark.

摘要

In Denmark the poultry industry and the National Committee for Pig Production, together with the feedstuff industry, decided to voluntarily abolish the use of all anti-microbial growth promoters (AGP). The poultry industry abolished the use of AGP from 15 February 1998 and the pig industry followed on 1 March 1998 (for pigs over 35 kg) and 1 January 2000 (for pigs under 35 kg). To evaluate the effects of the removal of AGP, data from both the poultry and pig industries were collected prior to and after the removal of AGP from animal feed. Utilizing these production data, this paper calculates economy-wide effects of the removal of AGP using the Agricultural Applied General Equilibrium (AAGE) model of the Danish economy. The results show that the long-term effects are a moderate decline in the production and export of pigmeat, and a positive indirect effect on other industries including poultry due to lower rental rates for primary factor inputs. The overall implication is a small decline in real GDP of 0.03%, reducing public and private consumption by 68 DKK per capita per year in Denmark..