Historical trends and high-resolution future climate projections in northern Tuscany (Italy)

摘要

Highlights?We analyze historical precipitation and temperature trends in northern Tuscany.?Regional Climate Models are used to assess local scale future climate projections.?An ensemble of 13 RCMs is used to represent the uncertainty in the results.?Downscaled/bias corrected projections allow obtaining very high-resolution results.AbstractThis paper analyzes the historical precipitation and temperature trends and the future climate projections with reference to the northern part of Tuscany (Italy). The trends are identified and quantified at monthly and annual scale at gauging stations with data collected for long periods (60–90?years). An ensemble of 13 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), was then used to assess local scale future precipitation and temperature projections and to represent the uncertainty in the results. The historical data highl