Stochastic extreme downscaling model for an assessment of changes in rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves over South Korea using multiple regional climate models

摘要

Highlights?A stochastic extreme downscaling model in a fully Bayesian framework is developed.?The model aims to downscale expected changes in daily rainfall into sub-daily scale.?Quantile mapping for bias correction is incorporated into the downscaling model.?Conditional copula function is used to derive future IDF curves from daily rainfall.?Integrated Bayesian inference allows accounting for parameter uncertainties.AbstractA conditional copula function based downscaling model in a fully Bayesian framework is developed in this study to evaluate future changes in intensity–duration frequency (IDF) curves in South Korea. The model incorporates a quantile mapping approach for bias correction while integrated Bayesian inference allows accounting for parameter uncertainties. The proposed approach is used to temporall