The near-term prediction of drought and flooding conditions in the northeastern United States based on extreme phases of AMO and NAO

摘要

Highlights?Dependency of AMO and NAO teleconnection with Northeast hydroclimate to season and basin scale.?Stronger teleconnection patterns at headwater catchments than downstream basins.?Confounded teleconnection patterns at regulated and/or developed basins.?Introduced a simple approach for near-term prediction of drought and flooding.?A reduction in the probabilities of wet, average, and dry discharge conditions with increases in basin scale.AbstractA series of hydroclimatic teleconnection patterns were identified between variations in either Atlantic or Pacific oceanic indices with precipitation and discharge anomalies in the northeastern United States. We hypothesized that temporal annual or seasonal changes in discharge could be explained by variations in extreme phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillat