Forecasting crude oil price with multilingual search engine data

摘要

In the big data era, search engine data (SED) have presented new opportunities for improving crude oil price prediction; however, the existing research were confined to single-language (mostly English) search keywords in SED collection. To address such a language bias and grasp worldwide investor attention, this study proposes a novel multilingual SED-driven forecasting methodology from a global perspective. The proposed methodology includes three main steps: (1) multilingual index construction, based on multilingual SED; (2) relationship investigation, between the multilingual index and crude oil price; and (3) oil price prediction, with the multilingual index as an informative predictor. With WTI spot price as studying samples, the empirical results indicate that SED have a powerful predictive power for crude oil price; nevertheless, multilingual SED statistically demonstrate better performance than single-language SED, in terms of enhancing prediction accuracy and model robustness. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.