Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model

Zhang Wei; Kirtman Ben

摘要

Abstract >Decadal climate predictability has received considerable scientific interest in recent years, yet the limits and mechanisms for decadal predictability are currently not well known. It is widely accepted that noise due to internal atmospheric dynamics at the air‐sea interface influences predictability. The purpose of this paper is to use the interactive ensemble (IE) coupling strategy to quantify how internal atmospheric noise at the air‐sea interface impacts decadal predictability. The IE technique can significantly reduce internal atmospheric noise and has proven useful in assessing seasonal‐to‐interannual variability and predictability. Here we focus on decadal timescales and apply the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent method to the Community Climate System Model comparing control simulations with IE simulations. This is the first time the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent has been applied to the state‐of‐the‐art coupled models. The global patterns of decadal predictability are discussed from the perspective of internal atmospheric noise and ocean dynamics. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>摘要</ title> >近年来，Decadal气候可预测性得到了相当大的科学兴趣，但Decadal的限制和机制可预测性目前尚不熟悉。众所周度地普遍接受，由于内部大气动力学，在海洋界面处影响预测性。本文的目的是使用交互式集合（即）耦合策略来量化空中海界面的内部大气噪声如何影响二等程度的可预测性。 IE技术可以显着降低内部大气噪声，并证明可用于评估季节性变异性和可预测性。在这里，我们专注于Decadal Timescales，并将非线性本地Lyapunov指数方法应用于社区气候系统模型与IE模拟的控制模拟。这是第一次非线性局部Lyapunov指数已经被应用到所述状态的最先进的耦合模式。从内部大气噪声和海洋动力学的角度讨论了二等可预测性的全局模式。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2019年第6期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共11页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhang Wei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhang Wei;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kirtman Ben&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Kirtman Ben;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiami FL USA;</p> <p>Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric ScienceUniversity of MiamiMiami FL USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019853036.html">Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhang Wei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Zhang Wei,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Kirtman Ben&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Kirtman Ben </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-23539/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Geophysical Research Letters .</a> <span>2019</span><span>,第6期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：互动集合模型的二数气候可预测性估计</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704013894379.html">Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: AMultimodel-Ensemble Study</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Collins M&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Collins M,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Botzet M&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Botzet M,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Carril AF&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Carril AF,</a> <a href="/journal-foreign-33934/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">Journal of Climate .</a> <span>2006</span><span>,第7期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：北大西洋的年际至年代际气候可预测性：多模型组合研究</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023003444.html">Reliability of climate model multi-member ensembles in estimating internal precipitation and temperature variability at the multi-decadal scale</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chen Jie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Chen Jie,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Brissette Francois P.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Brissette Francois P. </a> <a href="/journal-foreign-21026/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society .</a> <span>2019</span><span>,第2期</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：气候模型多成员合奏的可靠性估算多层尺度的内部降水和温度变异性</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-foreign_meeting-197342_thesis/020513484379.html">Estimating uncertainties in globaEstimating global and North American regional climate change projections using a multi-thousand member climate model ensemble: Evaluation of the control simulations</a> <b>[C]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Derek Rosendahl&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Derek Rosendahl,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=David Karoly&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">David Karoly </a> <a href="/conference-foreign-197342/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor">AMS annual meeting .</a> <span>2011</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：估计全球浮游生物的不确定性使用成千上万的成员气候模型集合估算全球和北美区域气候变化预测：控制模拟的评估</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-foreign_mphd_thesis/02061584522.html">Decadal Predictability in Climate Models with and without Interactive Ocean Dynamics</a> <b>[D] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Srivastava, Abhishekh K.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Srivastava, Abhishekh K. </a> <span>2017</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：有和没有互动海洋动力学的气候模型的十年代可预测性</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-foreign-pmc_springer-open-choice_thesis/040004931393.html">Predictability of phases and magnitudes of natural decadal climate variability phenomena in CMIP5 experiments with the UKMO HadCM3 GFDL-CM2.1 NCAR-CCSM4 and MIROC5 global earth system models</a> <b>[O] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Vikram M. Mehta&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Vikram M. Mehta,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Katherin Mendoza&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Katherin Mendoza,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Hui Wang&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Hui Wang </a> <span>-1</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：使用UKMO HadCM3GFDL-CM2.1NCAR-CCSM4和MIROC5全球地球系统模型进行的CMIP5实验中自然年代际气候变化现象的阶段和幅度的可预测性</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/open-access_resources_thesis/01000124131431.html">Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model</a> <b>[O] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wei Zhang&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Wei Zhang,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ben Kirtman&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Ben Kirtman </a> <span>2019</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：互动集合模型的二数气候可预测性估计</span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>8. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/ntis-science-report_de_thesis/02071636682.html">Alternative measures of potential predictability applied to ensemble simulations of seasonal land-surface climate</a> <b>[R] </b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Phillips, T. J.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Phillips, T. J. </a> <span>1996</span> </span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：潜在可预测性的替代措施适用于季节性陆地气候的集合模拟</span> </p> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_journal-zhoukou-normal-university_thesis/0201234122018.html">梯形模糊数的一元模糊线性回归模型的最小二乘估计</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=张爱武&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 张爱武</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-3828/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 周口师范学院学报 </a> </span> <span> . 2013</span><span>,第002期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_journal-xiamen-university-natural-science_thesis/0201248459746.html">Banach空间集合覆盖数估计的新方法</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=钟延生&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 钟延生</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-4552/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 厦门大学学报（自然科学版） </a> </span> <span> . 2016</span><span>,第001期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_journal-meteorological-sciences_thesis/0201254103148.html">使用ECMWF集合预报数据集估计全球季节平均气候异常的潜在可预报性</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=文彩虹&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 文彩虹</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=杨修群&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,杨修群</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-5002/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 气象科学 </a> </span> <span> . 2003</span><span>,第004期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_command-control-simulation_thesis/0201227326591.html">变结构多模型估计第Ⅱ部分——模型集合自适应</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=许江湖&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 许江湖</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=陈康&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,陈康</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-8330/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 指挥控制与仿真 </a> </span> <span> . 2002</span><span>,第001期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-journal-cn_command-control-simulation_thesis/0201227328648.html">变结构多模型估计第V部分——可能模型集合算法</a> <b>[J]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=张永胜&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 张永胜</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=许江湖&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,许江湖</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-8330/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 指挥控制与仿真 </a> </span> <span> . 2002</span><span>,第004期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-cn_meeting-59543_thesis/020222573300.html">一种变结构多模型估计方法——最小子模型集合切换算法</a> <b>[C]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=张永胜&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 张永胜</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=嵇成新&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,嵇成新</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=万永峰&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,万永峰</a> <span> <a href="/conference-cn-59543/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 2005年全国博士生学术论坛——交通运输工程学科 </a> <span> <span> . 2005</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>7. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/020316359048.html">基于集合经验模态分解的低SNR下信源数估计方法</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=胡耀敏&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 胡耀敏</a> <span> . 2021</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061202129467.html">基于集合论估计模型的电力系统状态估计方法及系统</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN102982379B </span> <span> . 2016.08.03</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120101706829.html">基于集合论估计模型的电力系统状态估计方法及系统</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN102982379A </span> <span> . 2013-03-20</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130422109272.html">ESTIMATING METHOD USING ENSEMBLE AVERAGE BASED ON THE REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL PERFORMANCE</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  KR101092380B1 </span> <span> . 2011-12-13</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：基于区域气候模型性能的估计平均数估计方法 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>4. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130500807385.html">Methods and apparatus to generate highly-interactive predictive models based on ensemble models</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US11144940B2 </span> <span> . 2021-10-12</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：基于集合模型产生高度交互式预测模型的方法和设备 </span> </p> </li> <li> <div> <b>5. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06130404144347.html">Methods and apparatus to generate highly-interactive predictive models based on ensemble models.</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 外国专利：  US2019057408A1 </span> <span> . 2019-02-21</span> </div> <p class="zwjiyix translation" style="max-width: initial;height: auto;word-break: break-all;white-space: initial;text-overflow: initial;overflow: initial;"> <span>机译：基于集成模型生成高度互动的预测模型的方法和设备。 </span> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="theme cardcommon" style="overflow: auto;display:none"> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent55">相关主题</h3> <ul id="subject"> </ul> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right rightcon"> <div class="details_img cardcommon clearfix" style="margin-bottom: 10px;display:none;" > </div> </div> </div> <div id="thesis_get_original1" class="downloadBth" style="bottom: 19px;z-index: 999;" onclick="ywcd('0704019853036','4',7,2,1,'',this,24)" class="delivery" prompt="010401" title="通过人工服务将文献原文发送至邮箱" >获取原文</div> <div class="journalsub-pop-up" style="display: none"> <div class="journal-sub"> <h2>期刊订阅</h2> <img src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/img/loginclose.png" alt="关闭" onclick="$('.journalsub-pop-up').hide()"> <p class="pardon">抱歉，该期刊暂不可订阅，敬请期待！</p> <p class="current">目前支持订阅全部北京大学中文核心（2020）期刊目录。</p> <div style="display: flex;margin-top: 69px;justify-content: space-between;"> <div class="no-sub" onclick="$('.journalsub-pop-up').hide()">暂不订阅</div> <div class="other-sub" onclick="continueSub('from=pc-detail')">继续订阅其他期刊</div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="right_btn"> <ul> <li class="gouwuche">  </li> <li class="yijian"> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="link_analysis('/mycenter/auth/complaint.html',this)" title="意见反馈">意见反馈</a> </li> <li class="top"> <a href="javascript:scrollTo(0,0);" title="回到顶部">回到顶部</a> </li> <li class="shouye"> <a href="/" title="首页">回到首页</a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="xllindexfooter"> <div class="xllindexfootercenter"> <div class="xllindexfooterleft left" > <div class="xllindexfooterleftli"> <ul> <li><a href="/about.html" title="关于掌桥">关于掌桥</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpmap.html" title="资源导航">资源导航</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpguide.html" title="新手指南">新手指南</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpcenter.html" title="常见问题">常见问题</a></li> <li><a href="/sitemap.html" title="网站地图">网站地图</a></li> <li><a href="/help/helpcenter.html?type=9" title="版权声明">版权声明</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="xllindexfooterleft"> <p class="xllindexfooterlefteamil">客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com</p> <div class="xllindexfooterlefttcp"> <div class="xllindexfooterpoliceiimg"></div> <div class="xllindexfooterpoliceispan"> <span>京公网安备：11010802029741号 </span> <span>ICP备案号：<a href="https://beian.miit.gov.cn" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="ICP备案号">京ICP备15016152号-6</a></span> <span>六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有</span> </div> </div> </div> </div> <div class="xllindexfooterright left"> <ul> <li> <p style="font-weight: bold;">客服微信</p> <div></div> </li> <li> <p style="font-weight: bold;">服务号</p> <div></div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> </div> <span id="0704019853036down" data-source="7," data-out-id="fCZqWLWEo1ZeaWA9OV3W4O0bQdthkNi2YIPjV7CrlNfjfR92vKiIM80BK80KrBIl," data-f-source-id="7" data-title="Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model" data-price="20" data-site-name="" data-transnum="24" style="display:none;"></span> <input type="hidden" value="4" id="sourcetype"> <input type="hidden" value="0704019853036" id="docid"> <input type="hidden" value="23539" id="journalid"> <input type="hidden" value="1" id="inyn_provide_service_level"> <input type="hidden" value="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com" id="imgcdn"> <input type="hidden" value="1" id="isdeatail"> <input type="hidden" value="" id="syyn_indexed_database"> <input type="hidden" value="" id="servicetype"> <input type="hidden" id="pagename" value="Estimates of Decadal Climate Predictability From an Interactive Ensemble Model"/> <input type="hidden" value="thesis_get_original" id="pageIdentification"> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/jquery-1.12.4.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/lwlh_ajax.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/zq.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/common.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/jquery.cookie.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/top.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/tip.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/login.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/down.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/search.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/newmail.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/page.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/searchtype.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/user/regist.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/zxs_solor/detail.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/zxs_solor/reference.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/statistics/static/pagecollection.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/tj.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/sse.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/pushbaidu.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/common/history.js"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/util/cookie.js?v=5.8.7"></script> <script type="text/javascript" src="https://cdn.zhangqiaokeyan.com/js/weipu/weipu.js?v=5.8.7"></script> </body> <script> function kefu(customization) { var from = GetQueryString("from"); if (from == null || from == "") { from = "other"; } var url = getWxWorkQrCode(73, from, customization); if (url == "" || typeof url == 'undefined') { url = "https://wework.qpic.cn/wwpic/994838_0LUTS-VqR0quT1N_1675665967/0"; } tipDocGuidance(url, '人工辅助获取外文期刊材料'); } $(function(){ var weiPuStatus = getCookie('WeiPuStatus'); if(weiPuStatus){ tipWeiPuStatus(weiPuStatus); delCookie('WeiPuStatus'); } getFacetKeywordVoInId(); var sourcetype = $("#sourcetype").val(); var inyn_provide_service_level = $("#inyn_provide_service_level").val(); if((sourcetype ==1||sourcetype==4)&&inyn_provide_service_level!=4){ getJournal(); } }) function toCoverPage(){ var sourcetype=$("#sourcetype").val var fromStr=""; if(sourcetype==0){ fromStr="pc-wwoaxiangqing"; } if(sourcetype==4){ fromStr="pc-wwdetail-title"; } if(sourcetype==5){ fromStr="pc-wwhuiyixiangqing"; } window.location.href=url+"/zhichengpingshenlunwen.html?from="+fromStr; } </script> </html>