Extreme High‐Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low‐Warming Experiments

Li Donghuan; Zhou Tianjun; Zou Liwei; Zhang Wenxia; Zhang Lixia

摘要

Abstract >Extreme high‐temperature events have large socioeconomic and human health impacts. East Asia (EA) is a populous region, and it is crucial to assess the changes in extreme high‐temperature events in this region under different climate change scenarios. The Community Earth System Model low‐warming experiment data were applied to investigate the changes in the mean and extreme high temperatures in EA under 1.5°C and 2°C warming conditions above preindustrial levels. The results show that the magnitude of warming in EA is approximately 0.2°C higher than the global mean. Most populous subregions, including eastern China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan, will see more intense, more frequent, and longer‐lasting extreme temperature events under 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The 0.5°C lower warming will help avoid 35%–46% of the increases in extreme high‐temperature events in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration in EA with maximal avoidance values (37%–49%) occurring in Mongolia. Thus, it is beneficial for EA to limit the warming target to 1.5°C rather than 2°C. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >极端高温事件具有大的社会经济和人类健康影响。东亚（EA）是一个人口众多区域，在不同的气候变化方案下评估该地区极端高温事件的变化至关重要。应用社区地球系统模型低温实验数据，研究了在1.5°C和2°C的预热条件下的EA平均值和极端高温的变化。结果表明，EA中变暖的大约比全球平均值高约0.2°C。大多数人口众多的次区域，包括东部，朝鲜半岛和日本，将在1.5°C和2°C的温暖下看到更强烈，更频繁，更持久的极端温度事件。 0.5°C的变暖将有助于避免在蒙古发生的最大避免值（37％-49％）的强度，频率和持续时间方面的35％-46％的极端高温事件中的增加。因此，它有利于EA限制升温目标至1.5°C而不是2°C。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" > 著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters 》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b> <span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Li Donghuan&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Li Donghuan;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhou Tianjun&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhou Tianjun;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zou Liwei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zou Liwei;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhang Wenxia&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhang Wenxia;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhang Lixia&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhang Lixia;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing China;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing China;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing China;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing China;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span> <a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学 ;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme high‐temperature events&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme high‐temperature events;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=1.5°C warming target&option=203" rel="nofollow">1.5°C warming target;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=avoided impacts&option=203" rel="nofollow">avoided impacts;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：极端高温事件;1.5°C变暖目标;避免影响; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704019851667.html">Extreme High‐Temperature Events Over East Asia in 1.5°C and 2°C Warmer Futures: Analysis of NCAR CESM Low‐Warming Experiments</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Li 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