Simultaneous Regional Detection of Land‐Use Changes and Elevated GHG Levels: The Case of Spring Precipitation in Tropical South America

Barkhordarian Armineh; Storch Hans; Behrangi Ali; Loikith Paul C.; Mechoso Carlos R.; Detzer Judah

摘要

Abstract >A decline in dry season precipitation over tropical South America has a large impact on ecosystem health of the region. Results here indicate that the magnitude of negative trends in dry season precipitation in the past decades exceeds the estimated range of trends due to natural variability of the climate system defined in both the preindustrial climate and during the 850–1850 millennium. The observed drying is associated with an increase in vapor pressure deficit. The univariate detection analysis shows that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing has a systematic influence in negative 30‐year trends of precipitation ending in 1998 and later on. The bivariate attribution analysis demonstrates that forcing by elevated GHG levels and land‐use change are attributed as key causes for the observed drying during 1983–2012 over the southern Amazonia and central Brazil. We further show that the effect of GS signal (GHG and sulfate aerosols) based on RCP4.5 scenario already has a detectable influence in the observed drying. Thus, we suggest that the recently observed “drier dry season” is a feature which will continue and intensify in the course of unfolding anthropogenic climate change. Such change could have profound societal and ecosystem impacts over the region. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“Main”XML：Lang =“en”> <标题类型=“main”>摘要</ title> >热带南美洲的干燥季节降水下降对生态系统健康有很大影响地区。结果表明，过去几十年中干燥季节降水量的负趋势的严重趋势超过了由于预生产气候和850-1850千年期间所定义的气候系统的自然变化，估计趋势范围。观察到的干燥与蒸气压缺损的增加有关。单变量检测分析表明，温室气体（温室气体）强迫对1998年及以后的止血趋势进行了系统影响。双方归属分析表明，由于GHG水平升高，土地利用变化归因于1983 - 2012年在南部亚马逊和巴西中部观察干燥的关键原因。我们进一步表明，基于RCP4.5场景的GS信号（GHG和硫酸盐气溶胶）的影响已经在观察到的干燥中具有可检测的影响。因此，我们建议最近观察到的“干旱干燥季节”是一个功能，在展开人为气候变化过程中会继续并加剧。这种变化可能会产生深刻的社会和生态系统对该地区的影响。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第12期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Barkhordarian Armineh&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Barkhordarian Armineh;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Storch Hans&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Storch Hans;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Behrangi Ali&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Behrangi Ali;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Loikith Paul C.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Loikith Paul C.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Mechoso Carlos R.&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mechoso Carlos R.;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Detzer Judah&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Detzer Judah;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of California Los Angeles (UCLA)Los Angeles CA USA;</p> <p>Institute of Coastal ResearchHelmholtz‐Zentrum GeesthachtGeesthacht Germany;</p> <p>Jet Propulsion LaboratoryCalifornia Institute of TechnologyPasadena CA USA;</p> <p>Department of GeographyPortland State UniversityPortland OR USA;</p> <p>Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesUniversity of California Los Angeles (UCLA)Los Angeles CA USA;</p> <p>Department of GeographyPortland State UniversityPortland OR USA;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> </p> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" 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