Teleconnection Between Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and European Temperature: Diversity and Evaluation of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Models

Qasmi Sa?d; Cassou Christophe; Boé Julien

摘要

Abstract >A realistic simulation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and related teleconnections is essential to resolve and understand the potential predictability over Europe at decadal timescale. Based on a large ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we show that a considerable intermodel spread exists in the spatiotemporal properties of the simulated AMV and teleconnections with European summer temperature. The greater the persistence, variance, and basin‐scale spatial coherence, the stronger the teleconnection. We demonstrate that only a few members of a few models produce a teleconnection that is consistent with observational estimates over the instrumental period. This highlights the possible extreme nature of the last century teleconnection and/or a detrimental underestimation of ocean‐land teleconnectivity in many climate models. Yet we emphasize the considerable uncertainties due to methods used to disentangle internal and externally forced variations in observations, and to sampling, which must be correctly accounted when analyses are performed on short temporal records. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract Type =“main”XML：Lang =“en”> <title类型=“main”>抽象</ title> >大西洋多视长变异性（AMV）和相关的电信连接是必不可少的在Decadal Timescale上了解对欧洲的潜在可预测性。基于大型气候模型的大型集合，我们表明，在模拟的AMV和欧洲夏季温度的扎带的时空性质中存在相当大的内联蔓延。持久性，方差和盆地空间相干性越大，电信连接越强。我们证明，只有少数模型的一些成员产生了一个与乐器期间的观察估计一致的电信连接。这突出了上世纪遥联连接的可能极端性质和/或在许多气候模型中对海洋电信连接的不利低估。然而，我们强调了相当大的不确定性，由于在观察用于解开内部和外部强制的变化的方法，以及采样，必须当分析是在短的时间进行记录正确记帐。</ p> </抽象> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-23539/'>《Geophysical Research Letters》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2017年第21期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共10页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Qasmi Sa?d&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Qasmi Sa?d;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Cassou Christophe&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Cassou Christophe;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Boé Julien&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Boé Julien;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>CECI Université de Toulouse CNRS CerfacsToulouse France;</p> <p>CECI Université de Toulouse CNRS CerfacsToulouse France;</p> <p>CECI Université de Toulouse CNRS CerfacsToulouse France;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/163.html" title="地球物理学">地球物理学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Atlantic Multidecadal Variability&option=203" rel="nofollow">Atlantic Multidecadal Variability;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=teleconnection over Europe&option=203" rel="nofollow">teleconnection over Europe;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=model evaluation&option=203" rel="nofollow">model evaluation;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：大西洋多型变异性;在欧洲的电信连接;CMIP5;模型评估; 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