A new concept for risk analysis relating to the degradation of water reservoirs

摘要

This paper presents a proposal for a procedure by which to analyse the risk of reservoirs being degraded. The body of water assessed for its susceptibility to degradation in line with the proposed procedure is Myczkowce Reservoir, SE Poland. This reservoir has a maximum capacity of ten million m(3) and helps provide hydropower, by serving as a surge tank located above the main Solina Reservoir. On the basis of an assessment of its morphometric and hydrological parameters, Myczkowce Reservoir was assigned to the low-resilience category where risk of degradation was concerned. The primary factors responsible for that are limited capacity in relation to shoreline length, a lack of thermal stratification, and a high value for the Schindler index. These and other environmental parameters provided for Myczkowce's assignment to the category of susceptible to the impact of matter supplied by its catchment, with this reflecting the instantaneous nature of the basin, high values for the Ohle coefficient, average catchment slope, and the lack of a septic system. The designated risk level supported Myczkowce's assignment to a category characterised by an "unacceptable" risk of degradation. The proposed method taking two parameters (resilience and susceptibility) into account represents the first universal method for assessing reservoirs without reference to risks such as drought, flooding, or lack of water supply for human consumption. The risk depends only on the reservoir and catchment parameters.