Engineering Reliability and Risk Analysis for Water Resources Investments; Roleof Structural Degradation in Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis

摘要

This report presents the results of a preliminary investigation of thefeasibility of incorporating structural degradation into time-dependent reliability analysis of navigation infrastructure on inland and coastal waterways. An appraisal is presented of methodologies for engineering decision that might enable the owner/operator of a navigation facility to perform condition assessments, determine its economical remaining service life, and schedule routine maintenance and repair so as to minimize total operating costs without endangering public safety. The report is developed around the following specific research objectives: (1) Identify mathematical models to evaluate degradation in strength of navigation structures over time in terms of initial construction conditions, servicc load history, and aggressive environmental factors. (2) Develop a methodology to assess the probability that structural capacity has degraded below a specified level, taking into account initial conditions of the structure, service load history and structural aging, and deterioration. (3) Examine the role played by peridic inspection, nondestructive evaluation and maintenance in maintaining reliability and minimizing overall costs during a projected service period. This feasibility study is based on a review, synthesis and interpretation of existing procedures and data in the structural engineering, material science, and structural reliability literature. It provides a prospectus for subsequent research on reliabiity-based evaluation of navigation structures, some of which is initiating. (MM).