China's carbon dioxide emissions from cement production toward 2030 and multivariate statistical analysis of cement consumption and peaking time at provincial levels

摘要

China, the largest developing country, is the world largest cement producer and the largest cement-consuming nation. Although China's cement output reached its peak in 2014, regions, i.e., Fujian and Yunnan provinces, were no peaking until 2016. At the same time, rare studies referred to China's cement consumption and CO2 emissions from the perspective of cement consumption at the provincial level. We developed the S-Logistic, polynomial model, and ARIMA model to study the peaking time of cement consumption at the provincial level, and we also projected China's cement consumption and CO2 emissions toward 2030. Meanwhile, the discrepancies of peaking time and cumulative cement consumption per capita (CCCPC) among provinces were also studied based on GDP per capita and urbanization rate (UR). The results are that the CCCPC respectively in the range of 22-34 ton, 18-25 ton, and 17-27 ton in the eastern, intermediate, and western zone when cement consumption reached its peak. We draw the following conclusions that the CCCPC in 2030 could reach similar to 43 ton and the projected cement consumption is similar to 1252.72 Mt, which accounts for 50% of that in 2017, and cement CO2 emissions are at the range of 488.19-510.90 MtCO(2) in 2030. Furthermore, capacity replacement, controlling new capacity and eliminating backward capacity are significant of greenhouse gas emission reduction not only for China, but also for the global cement industry.