Assessing impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of Coregonus ussuriensis and other coldwater fishes in northern China

摘要

Climate change seriously affects habitat suitability for coldwater fish. Amur whitefish (Coregonus ussuriensis) is a commercially important coldwater fish species found in northeast China that is particularly sensitive to water temperature. We use water temperature models for Songhua (Harbin to Yilan) and Mayi rivers to predict habitat suitability for Amur whitefish and other coldwater fish species during the months of July and August in 2014 and 2100—2?months during which river temperatures can reach extremes. The predict-results showed that fish habitat was to deteriorate over time, and to be less suitable for survival of coldwater fish species in 2100 than that in 2014. Under scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5), the time period during which habitat for Amur whitefish was unsuitable increased continually; under scenario RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), Amur whitefish might even disappear from the river basin. A significant increase in river water temperature will compromise coldwater fish survival and possibly lead to their disappearance. Practical measures to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the impact of global warming on aquatic ecosystems must be taken.