No Early Signs of Compliance From Nigeria, Angola

摘要

Africa’s heavyweight producers Nigeria and Angola are among those least able to afford the ambitious production cuts outlined in the new Opec-plus agreement. They are also regarded as among those most likely to cheat. If they do, Nigeria’s lapses would be trickier to monitor because the country’s oil sector is so opaque and dysfunctional. The cuts — which use output in October 2018 as a baseline — call for Nigeria to cut 417,000 barrels per day in May and June reducing output to 1.41 million b/d, and for Angola to cut 348,000 b/d to 1.180 million b/d (IOD Apr.14’20). Seasoned observers say both governments will publicly insist that the pain must be shared equitably between all producers operating in each country, while seeking to minimize the pain for their national oil companies.