The million barrel question

摘要

Opec has a million barrel problem next year. Consensus forecasts point to demand for its crude falling by 1.1mn b/d as new non-Opec production far outstrips global oil demand growth. Ministers meet in Vienna on 5-6 December and - to go by public statements - are likely only to extend the current Opec+ agreement by three months to June 2020, and not deepen the cuts. There is talk in advance of the meeting of encouraging recalcitrant members to adhere more rigidly to their quotas. But tightening compliance, if it can be done at all, only gets Opec so far along the road to balancing the market.