Many in the oil industry still remember the Hubbert peak oil theory, first known in the 1950's. Some even predicted maximum global production would happen in 2000s. Evidently, the prediction, which ignored two major drivers—economic incentives and advancing technology, did not work that well since the world is now facing oil glut. So, there is a new theory, but this time is on the other side of the fundamental equation. According to the World Energy Council, global petroleum consumption is likely to peak in 2030 as alternatives mature. Bloomberg New Energy Finance founder Michael Liebreich saw the event possibly nearer, with demand to peak around 2025 and start to decline in the 2030s. But Royal Dutch Shell—one of the biggest oil companies in the business—says that peak demand could be literally right around the corner, as early as 2021. "We've long been of the opinion mat demand will peak before supply," said CFO Simon Henry. "And that peak may be somewhere between 5 and 15 years hence, and it will be driven by efficiency and substitution, more than offsetting the new demand for transport."
展开▼
