COTTON PRICE TRENDS IN 2014/15

摘要

International cotton prices declined significantly in 2014/15. The Cotlook A Index, the most widely used measure of the price of cotton on the physical market, averaged 71 cents per pound, 21% lower than in 2013/14.For five consecutive seasons, world cotton production has exceeded consumption. The 2014/15 season began with a record stock of 20.3 million tons of cotton, up 13% from 2013/14. However, beginning stocks outside of China fell by 2%, from 8.4 million tonsin 2013/14 to 8.2 million tons in 2013/14. The A Index entered the season at 72.15 cts/lb on August 1, 2014, down nearly 20 cents from last season. Averaging 74 cts/lb in August 2014, the A Index peaked at 76.05 cts/lb on August 28, 2014. In September 2014, the A Index declined slightly, averaging 73.38 cts/lb and then fell further to 70.34 cts/lb in October 2014. The A Index was at its lowest for the season in November 2014, December 2014,and January 2015, averaging 67.53, 68.30 and 67.35 cts/lb, respectively. On January 26, 2015, the A Index reached its lowest point for the season at 65.30 cts/lb. From February 2015 through May 2015, the A Index grew modestly from an average of 69.84 to 72.86 cts/lb. In June and July 2015, the A Index declined slightly from the May average, and remained stable. It averaged 72.35 cts/lb in June 2015 and 72.38 cts/lb in July 2015. On July 31, 2015, the A Index reached 70.65 cts/ lb, and world-ending stocks were at a record 21.8 million tons, or nearly 90% of world consumption in 2014/15.