World Cotton Outlook To 2030: Growth May Slow As Competition Intensifies

摘要

During the past 34 years, global cotton production has doubled to the 90-million-bale level, thanks in large measure to yield-enhancing technology. World cotton consumption growth has been just as dramatic, rising from 44 million bales in 1962 to 85 million in 1995. Several extraordinary events around the cotton world stand out in my mind as I reflect over the past 34 years. These include Brazil's flip-flop from a major net exporter during the 1960s and 1970s to a major net importer today, China's world record 1984 and 1991 crops of more than 26 million bales, and the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union and its impact on the Russian textile industry and Central Asian exports. For the United States, highlights include the spectacular recovery in mill use since the early 1980s and the recent passage of the first truly market-oriented farm bill in more than 60 years.