The Cotlook A Index fell to around 90 cents per pound towards the end of May 2013, and the China Cotton Index (Type 328) fell to 19,350 yuan per ton, or 142 cents per pound, during the same period. Both indices have increased approximately 160% over the past decade. The Secretariat has been making regular forecasts of world cotton prices based on the basic fundamentals of cotton demand and supply and assessment of world cotton production, consumption, imports and exports since 1987. Assuming the current Chinese reserve policy continues as announced by the government, the Cotlook A Index is projected to average 88 cents per pound in 2012/13 and 115 cents per pound in 2013/14. The impacts of different policy scenarios for the Chinese reserve are discussed in more detail in the second article of the current issue of the Review.
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