In The Lancet, Rafael Lozano and colleagues1 have produced an update of their institution's 2010 global estimates of maternal2 and child3 mortality, which uses additional data and revised methods. Doing so clearly represents good practice from scientific and methodological perspectives. But it also raises important questions about the effect on end users of repeatedly publishing subtly different estimates, all of which are unavoidably built on data that incorporate major numerical and conceptual uncertainties. In the lead-up to the 2015 deadline for assessing achievement against the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), it is crucial that these uncertainties are also repeatedly acknowledged, particularly in view of their implications for correctly judging success.
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