China export quota threat prompts covering

摘要

In Europe demand remains brisk and many consumers have gone back to suppliers for spot top-ups to their contractual offtake. The stainless sector, a key driver of moly demand (see chart) is operating at full capacity and the order books for moly-bearing grades go out several months. But how long can the overall buoyancy of stainless business continue? Stainless production is notoriously cyclical, and after last year's massive recovery, when world output rose 15.4 percent, the growth is now flattening off. By the second half of the year we expect to see European stainless mills run out of momentum and output of flat products (though not long products, which are booming) may have to be trimmed to avoid stock build-up. In the US there is a persuasive view that prices are being supported mainly by supply constraint. True, some consumers, such as low alloy steel makers, have seen a decent recovery in their business since the new year but the stainless mills are now into a slower phase of their production cycle and moly demand is probably fairly flat. Moly availability remains tight, however, and this is mainly attributable to the slump in deliveries from China. Though other markets - notably Europe - have been hit by the dearth of Chinese material (see chart), in relative terms the impact on the US spot market has been even greater.