Ferrochrome--Outlook for Q1 rests on level of customer purchasing

摘要

Looking to next year, what may we expect to happen? Well, we believe the market balance has already moved into a surplus in Q4 2009, and we estimate a surplus will continue into Q1 2010. Consequently, we expect Q1 official contract prices to face downward rather than upward price pressure. The likely result is, from a producer's viewpoint, at best a rollover, or a fall of say 5e71b, although some market participants have suggested larger falls. The exact level the benchmark price may edge down by will depend crucially on customer purchasing levels, which is too early to pin down.