Stainless Steel

摘要

After increasing by around 3 percent year-on-year in the western world in the second quarter of 2003, stainless steel melt rates are expected to slow further in the third quarter of the year as a result of weak demand fundamentals and the slowdown in buying activity associated with the summer holiday period. On a western world basis we estimate that melted production rates will increase by less than 1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2003 and on a global basis we forecast growth rates to rise by just over 1 percent. As a result of the weak demand forecast for stainless steel we anticipate that in most regions, it will remain difficult for stainless mills and stockists to raise prices. In Asia and the USA, delivery and base prices have remained at the same level for the last three months, and in Western Europe, prices for finished stainless steel products have continued to erode. In Western Europe this situation has occurred predominantly as a result of the sharp downturn in demand, experienced in the second quarter of 2003. This, in turn, has led to finished product inventories rising to particularly high levels. As a result we expect that both these factors will prevent price gains over the remainder of the third quarter. However, if inventory levels are controlled during 3Q 2003, this will help to support prices and mill volumes in the fourth quarter of this year.