Substitutes?

摘要

Surprisingly, perhaps, mine restarts will not be a significant feature of the market till next year. The big three (BHPB, Codelco and Phelps Dodge) are indeed big enough to take a global view and are not greatly impressed with the pace of demand recovery. Despite occasional impressions to the contrary, Grupo Mexico has little or nothing to restart. And some of the more obvious independents, such as Butte, have considerable refurbishment to do before any reopening. Even if there is a decent revival of production by year-end, 2002 has brought more smelter capacity to fill. It is not difficult to find potential demand for at least another 400,000t Cu this year - say 325,000t after the closure of Gaspe. China could easily lift its imports by 100,000t Cu, India by 40,000t, LG Nikko 30,000t and Europe (West and East) by 70,0000t. Altonorte could use an additional 40,000t and Port Kembla should raise its offtake by 30-40,000t. Yes, the market may ease by year-end, but it won't be by very much.