A review of global trade activity during the first 9 months of 2003 and of company results so far reported for 2003 suggests that for some markets there has been some recovery in activity in Q3 2003. But this improvement followed a second quarter that was actually quite weak. Any such recovery is only moderate, as we are still well behind level of last year in terms of year-to-date totals, even if Q3 2003 is better than Q3 2002. Our assessment for world fibre demand in Q3 2003 is 15.2m fkm. This is 13 percent above Q2 2003 (13.5m fkm) but below Q1 2003 (16.6m fkm). Q1 2003 was unusual due to the high level of activity in the Japanese market as a result of NTT's spending pattern. Excluding the unusual impact of Japan, world demand for fibre in Q3 2003 was at the highest level since Q2 2002. Despite the pick-up in Q3, year-to-date fibre demand in 2003 is 2.3 percent down on Q1-Q3 2002, with the strongest ytd reductions experienced in North America and Europe.
展开▼
