Will softer demand in Asia ex. China trigger a fall in ingot premiums?

摘要

CRU forecasts demand in Japan to fall 4.5% y-o-y in Q4. Following a strong H1, Japanese primary demand has been noticeably softer. This is reflected in domestic semis shipments which weakened at the beginning of H2. The most recent data shows y-o-y contractions in August in semis uptake by main end use, as shown in the accompanying chart. A stumble in demand in Japan is reflected in a surge in Japan port stocks to 399,000t in October, the highest level since February 2009, in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis. CRU expects stocks to rise further in Q4.