Alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in the United States, 1950-2002

摘要

The aim of the study was to estimate the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and male all-cause mortality in the United States (U.S.) for the period 1950-2002. Alcohol sales (in litres of 100% alcohol) were used as proxy for per capita consumption. The data were analyzed using the Box-Jenkins technique. Two models were estimated, one including only female mortality as a control, the other including in addition cigarette sales. The first model yielded a significant alcohol effect that implied a 2.8% (p < 0.001) increase in mortality given a 1-litre increase in consumption. This estimate coincides with those obtained for Canada, northern Europe and Russia in previous research but is stronger than estimates for southern Europe. When cigarette sales were included in the model, the alcohol effect was almost halved but still statistically significant. The results indicate that population drinking is of great importance for public health.