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Benford's law in the natural sciences

机译:本福德自然科学定律

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More than 100 years ago it was predicted that the distribution of first digits of real world observations would not be uniform, but instead follow a trend where measurements with lower first digit (1,2,) occur more frequently than those with higher first digits (,8,9). This result has long been known but regarded largely as a mathematical curiosity and received little attention in the natural sciences. Here we show that the first digit rule is likely to be a widespread phenomenon and may provide new ways to detect anomalous signals in data. We test 15 sets of modern observations drawn from the fields of physics, astronomy, geophysics, chemistry, engineering and mathematics, and show that Benford's law holds for them all. These include geophysical observables such as the length of time between geomagnetic reversals, depths of earthquakes, models of Earth's gravity, geomagnetic and seismic structure. In addition we find it also holds for other natural science observables such as the rotation frequencies of pulsars; green-house gas emissions, the masses of exoplanets as well as numbers of infectious diseases reported to the World Health Organization. The wide range of areas where it is manifested opens up new possibilities for exploitation. An illustration is given of how seismic energy from an earthquake can be detected from just the first digit distribution of displacement counts on a seismometer, i.e., without actually looking at the details of a seismogram at all. This led to the first ever detection of an earthquake using first digit information alone.
机译:一百多年前,据预测,现实世界中观察到的第一位数的分布不是均匀的,而是遵循一种趋势,即具有较低的第一位数(1,2,)的测量比具有较高的第一位数( ,8,9)。这个结果早已为人所知,但在很大程度上被认为是数学上的好奇心,在自然科学中很少受到关注。在这里,我们证明了第一位数字规则可能是一种普遍现象,并且可能提供检测数据中异常信号的新方法。我们测试了15套来自物理学,天文学,地球物理学,化学,工程学和数学领域的现代观测结果,并证明了本福德定律对它们全部适用。这些包括地球物理观测资料,例如地磁反转之间的时间长度,地震深度,地球重力模型,地磁和地震结构。此外,我们发现它也适用于其他自然科学观测数据,例如脉冲星的旋转频率;向世界卫生组织报告的温室气体排放量,系外行星的数量以及传染病的数量。表现出来的广泛领域为开发提供了新的可能性。给出了如何仅从地震仪上的位移计数的第一位数字分布中检测地震的地震能量的说明,即,根本不实际查看地震图的细节。这导致仅使用第一位数字信息就首次检测到地震。

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