Forecast of the track and intensity of the tropical cyclone AILA over the Bay of Bengal by the global spectral atmospheric model VARSHA

摘要

The tropical cyclone 'AILA' formed over the Bay of Bengal and crossed the West Bengal coast in the afternoon of 25 May 2009. The track, surface pressure distribution, asymmetric wind, warm core, etc. and special features like rapid intensification near the coast and retention of intensity after landfall are examined in the forecast of model VARSHA. This model predicted the rapid intensification and sustained intensity after landfall indicating interaction with a cold core trough in the westerly. Comparison with observations by IMD and also the FNL analysis of NCEP, USA shows that VARSHA performed well in predicting the structure, motion and intensification of AILA.