'China has overbuilt anything for which it has capacity and feedstock'

摘要

China is at a critical turning point in its transformation from a merely big to a strong economy. Growth is bifurcating - slowing down in mature industries, including many sectors of the chemical industry, while speeding up in other consumer-oriented parts of the economy. The country is also seeing a shift from an investment-led to a consumption-led growth strategy, and quality is a new mantra in the industry. At the same time, industry is becoming more focussed on margins, the quality of growth and seeking higher margins. State-owned enterprises (SOEs), which dominate many sectors of the economy, have also initiated reforms and while PetroChina, amongst the largest of the lot, was first to do so, the government is now eyeing its subsidiaries. According to Mr. Sheng Hong, Partner, McKin-sey & Company, Shanghai, the chemical industry in China grew at a CAGR of 11% between 1990 and 2014, to become the largest in the world. But between 2014 and 2020, growth is expected to moderate to about 6%, but will still represent 62% of incremental growth in the period globally.