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Bayesian inference in semiparametric mixed models for longitudinal data.

机译:纵向数据的半参数混合模型中的贝叶斯推断。

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We consider Bayesian inference in semiparametric mixed models (SPMMs) for longitudinal data. SPMMs are a class of models that use a nonparametric function to model a time effect, a parametric function to model other covariate effects, and parametric or nonparametric random effects to account for the within-subject correlation. We model the nonparametric function using a Bayesian formulation of a cubic smoothing spline, and the random effect distribution using a normal distribution and alternatively a nonparametric Dirichlet process (DP) prior. When the random effect distribution is assumed to be normal, we propose a uniform shrinkage prior (USP) for the variance components and the smoothing parameter. When the random effect distribution is modeled nonparametrically, we use a DP prior with a normal base measure and propose a USP for the hyperparameters of the DP base measure. We argue that the commonly assumed DP prior implies a nonzero mean of the random effect distribution, even when a base measure with mean zero is specified. This implies weak identifiability for the fixed effects, and can therefore lead to biased estimators and poor inference for the regression coefficients and the spline estimator of the nonparametric function. We propose an adjustment using a postprocessing technique. We show that under mild conditions the posterior is proper under the proposed USP, a flat prior for the fixed effect parameters, and an improper prior for the residual variance. We illustrate the proposed approach using a longitudinal hormone dataset, and carry out extensive simulation studies to compare its finite sample performance with existing methods.
机译:我们在纵向数据的半参数混合模型(SPMM)中考虑贝叶斯推理。 SPMM是一类模型,这些模型使用非参数函数来建模时间效应,使用参数函数来建模其他协变量效应,以及使用参数或非参数随机效应来考虑对象内部相关性。我们使用三次平滑样条的贝叶斯公式对非参数函数进行建模,并使用正态分布和非参数Dirichlet过程(DP)进行随机效应分布建模。当假设随机效应分布为正态时,我们针对方差分量和平滑参数提出了均匀的收缩先验(USP)。当对非随机效应分布进行非参数建模时,我们先使用具有正常基本度量的DP,然后为DP基本度量的超参数提出USP。我们认为,即使指定了均值为零的基本测度,通常假定的DP先验也意味着随机效应分布的非零均值。这意味着固定效应的可识别性较弱,因此可能导致估计量有偏差,并且对非参数函数的回归系数和样条估计量的推断不充分。我们建议使用后处理技术进行调整。我们表明,在温和条件下,后验在拟议的美国药典中是适当的,对于固定效应参数而言,后验是平坦的,而对于剩余方差而言,验后是不适当的。我们使用纵向激素数据集说明了该方法,并进行了广泛的模拟研究,以比较其有限的样品性能与现有方法。

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