Forecasting of the wild deer population on Taimyr Peninsula [Russian]

摘要

In the Taimyr region, aerial counts of the wild reindeer population were not conducted during 7 years since 1993. A balance model forecast for the numbers and age-sex structure of the population between 1993 and 2000 was elaborated on the basis of analyzing the environmental factors affecting its dynamics. According to the forecast, in 2000, the number of the Taimyr wild reindeer population was approximately 1 million individuals. The aerial count of 2000 has verified the predicted data (1.05-1.08 million individuals). Taking into account the correct forecast, the interval for prognosis was prolonged up to 2005. In practice, aerial counts should be combined with calculation of wild reindeer numbers in the period between the terms of counting according to the model elaborated. As a result, the frequency of aerial counts may be reduced, and they may be more productive for the same financial expenses. The parameters of the model and the forecasts may be corrected annually based on the data of terrestrial observations of the animals and pasture status, epidemiological situation, and etc. The approach described may be useful for drawing up of a medium-term forecast for other wild reindeer populations.