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Improving MCMC, using efficient importance sampling

机译:使用有效的重要性抽样来改善MCMC

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摘要

A generic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, based upon Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) is developed, which can be used for the analysis of a wide range of econometric models involving integrals without analytical solution. EIS is a simple, generic and yet accurate Monte-Carlo integration procedure based on sampling densities which are global approximations to the integrand. By embedding EIS within MCMC procedures based on Metropolis–Hastings (MH) one can significantly improve their numerical properties, essentially by providing a fully automated selection of critical MCMC components, such as auxiliary sampling densities, normalizing constants and starting values. The potential of this integrated MCMC–EIS approach is illustrated with simple univariate integration problems, and with the Bayesian posterior analysis of stochastic volatility models and stationary autoregressive processes.
机译:开发了基于有效重要性抽样(EIS)的通用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛(MCMC)框架,该框架可用于分析涉及积分的多种计量经济学模型,而无需解析解决方案。 EIS是一种简单,通用且准确的蒙特卡洛积分程序,它基于采样密度,而采样密度是对被积物的全局近似值。通过将EIS嵌入基于Metropolis-Hastings(MH)的MCMC程序中,可以显着改善其数值特性,实质上是通过提供关键的MCMC组件的全自动选择,例如辅助采样密度,归一化常数和起始值。通过简单的单变量积分问题,以及随机波动率模型和平稳自回归过程的贝叶斯后验,可以说明这种集成的MCMC-EIS方法的潜力。

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