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Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap tests of cointegration rank with financial time series

机译:金融时间序列的协整等级的自举和快速双自举测试

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The likelihood ratio test of cointegration rank is the most widely used test for cointegration. Many studies have shown that its finite sample distribution is not well approximated by the limiting distribution. Bootstrap and fast double bootstrap (FDB) algorithms for the likelihood ratio test are introduced and evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation experiments. It is found that the performance of the ordinary (single) bootstrap test is in most cases good in terms of the size of the test. The FDB produces a further improvement in cases where the performance of the asymptotic test is unsatisfactory and the single bootstrap test overrejects noticeably. The FDB is shown to be a useful supplement to the single bootstrap as a tool for determining the cointegration rank. The tests are applied to US interest rates and international stock prices series. By simulating the data assuming that the cointegration rank is known, it is found that the asymptotic test tends to overestimate the cointegration rank, while the bootstrap and FDB tests choose the correct cointegration rank.
机译:协整等级的似然比检验是协整最广泛使用的检验。许多研究表明,有限分布不能很好地近似其有限样本分布。介绍了用于似然比测试的自举和快速双自举(FDB)算法,并通过蒙特卡罗模拟实验对其进行了评估。发现在大多数情况下,常规(单个)自举测试的性能在测试大小方面都不错。如果渐进测试的性能不能令人满意,并且单个自举测试明显被拒绝,则FDB可以进一步改进。 FDB被证明是对单个引导程序的有用补充,可以作为确定协整等级的工具。该测试适用于美国利率和国际股票价格系列。通过假设协整秩已知的数据进行仿真,发现渐近检验往往会高估协整秩,而自举和FDB检验会选择正确的协整秩。

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