Optimal control of nonlinear dynamic econometric models: An algorithm and an application

摘要

OPTCON is an algorithm for the optimal control of nonlinear stochastic systems which is particularly applicable to econometric models. It delivers approximate numerical solutions to optimum control problems with a quadratic objective function for nonlinear econometric models with additive and multiplicative (parameter) uncertainties. The algorithm was programmed in C and allows for deterministic and stochastic control, the latter with open-loop and passive learning (open-loop feedback) information patterns. The applicability of the algorithm is demonstrated by experiments with a small quarterly macroeconometric model for Slovenia. This illustrates the convergence and the practical usefulness of the algorithm and (in most cases) the superiority of open-loop feedback over open-loop controls.