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The changing incidence of extremes in worldwide and Central Englandtemperatures to the end of the twentieth century

机译:到20世纪末,全球和英格兰中部极端地区的极端事件发生率不断变化

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摘要

Annual and seasonal gridded ocean surface temperature anomalies show an increase in warm extremes and a decrease in cold extremes since the late 19th century attributable entirely to the overall warming trend. Over land, however, a reduction in the total incidence of extremes may reflect improved instrumental exposures. Our estimates of extremes are made by deriving percentiles from fits of anomalies on 5 degrees latitude x 5 degrees longitude resolution to modified 2-parameter gamma distributions. A non-parametric method is used to check the validity of the results. Fields of percentiles created using this technique can be used to map the distribution of unusual temperature anomalies across the globe on any time scale from a month to about a decade, from 1870 onwards. We apply a similar technique to assess changes in the incidence of extreme daily Central England temperature anomalies. The incidence of these extremes, relative to individual monthly average temperatures, has declined.
机译:自19世纪末以来,年度和季节性网格化海洋表面温度异常显示极端极端情况增加而极端极端情况减少,这完全归因于总体变暖趋势。但是,在陆地上,极端事件的总发生率降低可能反映了工具暴露的改善。我们对极端值的估计是通过从纬度5度x 5度分辨率的异常拟合到修正的2参数伽马分布得出百分位数得出的。使用非参数方法来检查结果的有效性。从1870年开始,从一个月到大约十年的任何时间范围,使用此技术创建的百分位数字段均可用于绘制全球异常温度异常的分布图。我们应用类似的技术来评估英格兰中部极端每日温度异常发生率的变化。相对于个人每月平均温度,这些极端事件的发生率有所下降。

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