Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022

摘要

This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36MtCO sub(2)e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85MtCO sub(2)e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon ( pound sterling 34 (tCO sub(2)e) super(-1)) . The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture.