日本の将来推計人口をもとにした今後30年間の輸血用血液の需給予測

摘要

Can sufficient quantities of blood for transfusion be provided in the mid- to long-term future as the aging of Japanese society progresses? We estimated the amount of blood collected through donations and the amount needed for transfusions over the next 30 years based on population projections. 1995 rates for donation and transfusion were used as constant values in calculation for the next 30 years. The estimates were made by first dividing the population into age groups, then for each group by calculating the product of the projected population and the blood donation (or transfusion) rates, and finally by adding up the results. Although the total population in 2025 will be slightly higher than that in 1995, the amount of blood donations in 2025 will be 82% of the 1995 figure because the number of people in their 20's and 30's will decrease. On the other hand, the number of patients who receive transfusions in 2025 will be 1.4 times higher than that in 1995. Therefore, the ratio of the amount of blood prepared to the amount necessary for transfusion will fall from 109% in 1995, to 96% in 2000, 84% in 2005, 74% in 2010, 67% in 2015, and 63% in 2025. It is predicted that the collection of blood will become more and more difficult with the aging of Japanese society. It is necessary to increase the number of blood donors by encouraging national movements for the promotion of blood donation and to promote the proper use of blood products.