Reliability analysis of turbine blades based on fuzzy response surface method

摘要

To improve the precision of reliability analysis on turbine blades, the fuzzy response surface method of reliability analysis is proposed by considering the fuzziness of the input variables and the vagueness of the limit state variables. Initially, the fuzzy basic variables were converted into equivalent random variables according to the method of equivalent transformation. Additionally, the mathematic model of the fuzzy response surface for structural reliability analysis was established, based on the quadratic polynomial response surface function. The mean value and variance of the blade stress and radial deformation were obtained by using the Monte-Carlo method based on generous linkage sampling to the model. Finally, the probability of failure and fuzzy random reliability index were calculated based on the probability integral method. Results indicate that the reliability probability of the blade is 97.665%, when the allowable stress and deformation are 390 MPa and 0.195 mm, respectively. It is demonstrated that with an increase of the fuzzy coefficient, the blade reliability index decreases; thus, the random reliability of the blade is slightly higher than the fuzzy reliability.