A Long-Term Earthquake Forecast for the Kuril-Kamchatka Arc for the Period from September 2011 to August 2016. The Likely Location, Time, and Evolution of the Next Great Earthquake with M ≥ 7.7 in Kamchatka

摘要

We consider the results from the ongoing 2010-2011 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril-Kamchatka arc based on the pattern of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We develop a forecast for the next 5 years, from September 2011 to August 2016, for all segments of the Kuril-Kamchatka arc earthquake-generating zone. For 20 segments we predict the appropriate phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A_(10)), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probability 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, and the maximum possible magnitudes and probability of occurrence for great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. This study serves as another confirmation that it is entirely necessary to continue the work in seismic retrofitting in the area of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskii. Independent additional estimates of the likely location, time, and evolution of the next M ≥ 7.7 earthquake in Kamchatka were obtained by considering same-type scenarios in the evolution of foreshock sequences, main shocks, and aftershocks for the last three great earthquakes in Kamchatka: November 22, 1969; December 15, 1971, and December 5, 1997. The giant Tohoku earthquake of March 11 , 2011 (M_w = 9, M = 8.9) filled the seismic gap as identified in our 2005 forecast for northeastern Japan.