A Long-Term Earthquake Forecast for the Kuril–Kamchatka Arc for the Period from September 2010 to August 2015 and the Reliability of Previous Forecasts, as well as their Applications

摘要

We describe results from the ongoing 2008–2010 work on long-term earthquake prediction for the Kuril–Kamchatka arc based on the patterns of seismic gaps and the seismic cycle. We provide a forecast for the next 5 years, September 2010 to August 2015, specified for all segments of the earthquake-generating Kuril–Kamchatka arc zone. For 20 segments we predict the phases of the seismic cycle, the normalized rate of small earthquakes (A_(10)), the magnitudes of moderate earthquakes to be expected with probabilities of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.15, the maximum possible magnitudes, and the probabilities of great (M ≥ 7.7) earthquakes. It is shown that the forecast given for the previous 5 years, from September 2005 to September 2010, was found to be accurate. We report the measures that were taken for seismic safety and retrofitting based on these forecasts.