Recognition of Possible Locations of Future M 6.0 Earthquakes:The Mediterranean Mountain Belts

摘要

The goal of the present work is to identify high-seismicity (High) intersections of morphostructurallineaments within the Mediterranean mountain belts (the Alps, Apennines, Balkanides, Dinarides, and the Car-pathians). The intersections of lineaments, with the lineaments being boundaries of crustal blocks, were deter-mined by morphostructural zoning. The epicenters of M 6.0 earthquakes and the intersections were found tohe related. We used the KORA-3 recognition algorithm to identify the High intersections, where M 6.0 earth-quakes can occur, separately for each mountainous country. Most of the High intersections identified here arelocated on higher-rank lineaments that separate major crustal blocks. The High intersections typically involvecontrasting neotectonic movements and an increased crustal fragmentation. The results of this study point to ahigh seismic potential for the regions studied: we have identified many High intersections where no large earth-quakes have yet been recorded.