A supervised neural network model for predicting average summer monsoon rainfall in India. (Special Issue: Artificial intelligence in agriculture.)

摘要

Present study aims to develop a predictive model based on artificial neural network (ANN) for the average summer monsoon rainfall amount over India. The dataset made available by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, was explored. To develop the predictive model, Backpropagation method with scaled conjugate gradient descent algorithm has been implemented. The ANN model with the said algorithm has been trained thrice to reach a good result. After three runs of the model, it is found that a high prediction yield is available. Finally after rigorous assessment by Willmott's index, ANN with scaled conjugate gradient descent based Backpropagation algorithm was found to be skillful in predicting average summer monsoon rainfall amount over India. It has been found to be more skillful than non-linear regression in the said prediction task.