A Spectral Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter Scheme and Its Impact on Flow-Dependent Predictability in the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System

摘要

Understanding model error in state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models and representing its impact on flow-dependent predictability remains a complex and mostly unsolved problem. Here, a spectral stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme is used to simulate upscale-propagating errors caused by unresolved subgrid-scale processes. For this purpose, stochastic streamfunction perturbations are generated by autoregressive processes in spectral space and injected into regions where numerical integration schemes and parameterizations in the model lead to excessive systematic kinetic energy loss. It is demonstrated how output from coarse-grained high-resolution models can be used to inform the parameters of such a scheme. The performance of the spectral backscatter scheme is evaluated in the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Its implementation in conjunction with reduced initial perturbations results in a better spread–error relationship, more realistic kinetic-energy spectra, a better representation of forecast-error growth, improved flow-dependent predictability, improved rainfall forecasts, and better probabilistic skill. The improvement is most pronounced in the tropics and for largeanomaly events. It is found that whereas a simplified scheme assuming a constant dissipation rate already has some positive impact, the best results are obtained for flow-dependent formulations of the unresolved processes.