Development of a recruitment index for forecasting seasonal landings ofthe Kuwait shrimp fisheries

摘要

The seasonal landings and preseason survey data for the Kuwait shrimp fishery were analyzed. Mean catch rates in the preseason surveys in the southern area in July and August might serve as a recruitment index for the fishery. A combined-species model and a single-species model for Penaeus semisulcatus explained 96 and 89% of the variance, respectively. These parametric models together with nonparametric methods were then employed to forecast the 1997 to 1998 season's shrimp landings before the season opened. The nonparametric models produced better forecasts than the parametric models. Finally, a general discussion about parametric and nonparametric methods for fishery forecasting was presented. [References: 27]