Assessment of Damage Risks to Residential Buildings and Cost-Benefit of Mitigation Strategies Considering Hurricane and Earthquake Hazards

摘要

Damage to residential buildings in the United States caused by hurricanes, earthquakes, and other natural hazards is significant. Economic losses average approximately 5.4 billion dollars annually from hurricanes and approximately 4.4 billion dollars a year from earthquakes. In certain areas, multiple hazards pose a significant threat to buildings, however, it is a challenge to optimize allocation of hazard mitigation resources. To cost-effectively mitigate risk from multiple natural hazards, a better understanding of building performance during extreme natural events will provide a basis for achieving cost-effective mitigation of risk from competing natural hazards. This paper demonstrates a risk-cost-benefit framework for assessing damage risks and cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies for residential buildings using life-cycle and scenario-case analysis. The framework includes probabilistic modeling of the occurrence and intensity of natural hazards, structural system fragility modeling to represent the conditional probability of damage, and a model of total expected cost during different service intervals. The assessment can support improvements in design and construction practices, insurance underwriting, and planning community response to disasters. Many factors that are hard to quantify yet important in risk assessment are discussed for their roles and impacts on hazard mitigation decision making.